Planet SOS: Why is Pakistan under water?
Sam Wilson works in the education sector in Islamabad, Pakistan
Drone footage from Rojhan, Rajanpur, South Punjab, Pakistan
In a decade of calamities, Pakistan’s floods have shocked the world. A third of the country lies underwater. Over 33 million people are affected, over 1,000 people have died, and livelihoods, homes, schools and crops have been washed away in the torrent. This article gives a rapid overview of what is happening, why, and what may come next.
What is happening?
Pakistan is suffering from the worst floods in its history, with over 6 million people in dire need of assistance. As flash flooding has torn through rural areas and riverbanks and dams have burst, the destruction has been immense. As of 27th August over 1000 people have died including 400 children. Nearly 500,000 people are in displacement camps as 287,000 homes have been destroyed and over 650,000 damaged. 719,000 livestock animals have been killed as well as nearly 2 million acres of crops. Infrastructure has been destroyed, cutting off villages and communities unable to source food, water or health supplies.
Access to healthcare is a challenge, and there is an increased risk of water-borne disease as temperatures rise above 40°C in flood-affected areas attracting mosquitoes. Women are at particular risk - over 127,000 of the women displaced from their homes are pregnant, with more than 14,000 due to give birth within a month. Other sectors have also suffered - in education, over 18,590 schools have been damaged or destroyed.
Why is this happening?
The immediate cause of the floods is record-breaking rain. Every year Pakistan receives the ‘summer monsoon’ - a seasonal period following a hot summer where changing winds bring in rain from the Arabian Sea. This year was different - a “monsoon on steroids” according to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. In two of Pakistan’s most disadvantaged provinces - Balochistan and Sindh - the monsoon rain has continued virtually unabated since June causing five to six times the average annual rainfall.
Climate change is almost certainly making the floods much worse. In particular warmer global temperatures cause three conditions that supercharge monsoon rains:
Warmer seas
Warmer land &
Melting ice
Firstly, a hotter planet leads to warmer oceans, leading to more moisture picked up by monsoon clouds out at sea. Secondly, moisture-dense air rolls in over unusually warm land - this year parts of Sindh reached over 50°C during summer heatwaves. Warm land temperatures drive the clouds upwards, causing low-pressure systems and increased rain. Finally, the increased rain falls into rivers that are already bursting because the extreme heat Pakistan has been experiencing has accelerated glacial melt in the Himalayas, meaning monsoon rains fall into rivers that are nearly bursting their banks already.
The link between human-induced climate change and more extreme weather events, like stronger monsoons, has been well established by climate scientists for decades. As was noted in our interview with Bilal Anwar, CEO of Pakistan’s National Disaster Risk Management Fund, Pakistan has long ranked in the top 10 most climate-vulnerable countries in the world, despite being responsible for less than 1% of global emissions.
As with other climate-vulnerable developing countries, those people affected by climate change are already facing deep challenges including poverty, hunger, malnutrition and low educational outcomes. Balochistan, in which 60% of homes are damaged, already faced extreme poverty, with the equivalent quality of life of Yemen or Eritrea. As the Covid-19 pandemic showed, disasters leave these communities even further behind.
What will Pakistan do now?
In the immediate future the government and UN agencies have developed a national flood response plan to run from 1st September to February 2023. In addition the government has committed over 35 billion PKR ($173 million) from the Benazir Income Support Programme that is expected to rise to 100 billion PKR ($460 million) for emergency flood relief. This includes support for national and provincial disaster management agencies to increase supplies of food packs, shelters, tarpaulins and mosquito nets. In addition government ministers have appealed to the world for help, requesting $160 million in international aid and relief. This funding is required for emergency deployment across key sectors such as education, health, food security and water and hygiene.
Eventually Pakistan will have to face the grim task of rebuilding - financing the recovery will cost an estimated $10 billion annually. But questions are being asked as to who should foot the bill. Pakistan is responsible for a fraction of global emissions, since 1959 it has contributed less than 0.4% to global emissions while the US and China combined are responsible for over 36%. This makes the cause of climate justice ever more urgent, and the COP26 commitment from developed nations to deliver $100 billion to help climate vulnerable countries with climate mitigation and adaptation all the more important to fulfil.
How can I help?
Pakistan has appealed to the world for urgent assistance. To donate to trusted organisations follow these links:
CLICK HERE for a longer list of trusted international organisations involved in flood relief.